百度股价飙升之谜

来源：Lex专栏

In the wake of the storm over “trading huddles”, there are new mutterings of investment bank tip-offs to preferred research clients.
所谓的“秘密交易会议”(trading huddles)引发风暴后，近日又有传言称，投资银行向自己偏爱的研究客户爆料。

Consider Baidu, the $14bn Chinese search specialist listed on Nasdaq. The stock had an uneventful summer, beginning July at $301 and ending August at $330. At about 10am on 4 September, it suddenly surged, against a flattish benchmark. By 1pm the stock was up 5 per cent. Over the next three trading days it continued to rise. On 11 September, Goldman Sachs upgraded earnings estimates, with a higher target price ? $475 ? than any of the 23 brokers on the street. On Wednesday Baidu eased through $400.
看看在纳斯达克(Nasdaq)上市、市值140亿美元的中国搜索巨擘百度(Baidu)吧。其股价在今年夏天风平浪静，7月初为301美元，8月底为330美元。9月4日上午10时许，百度股价突然飙升，而当时大盘并无起色。到下午1时，百度股价已上涨5%。在接下来的三个交易日，该股继续上涨。9月11日，高盛(Goldman Sachs)调高了对百度盈利的预测，并将目标股价定为475美元??比华尔街所有23家经纪商都高。本周三，百度股价轻松突破400美元。

Other factors than a trading huddle might explain Baidu's ascent. After the market close on 3 September, Dow Jones Indexes announced that, as of September 18, Baidu would be one of three stocks promoted to its BRIC 50 Index. On the morning of 4 September, Google ? Baidu's big rival for search revenues ? also said its president of Chinese operations was stepping down.
除了“秘密交易会议”以外，其它因素也许能够解释百度股价的上涨。9月3日收盘后，道琼斯指数宣布，从9月18日起，百度等三只股票将进入其金砖四国50股指(BRIC 50 Index)。还有，9月4日早上，百度在搜索收入方面的大型竞争对手谷歌(Google)表示，其中国业务总裁将要离职。

Neither event provides wholly satisfactory explanations. The two other stocks attracting new demand from tracker funds, Brazil's OGX and India's Jindal Steel & Power, jumped less on 4 September, and have since risen half as much. And while investors may be extrapolating gains for competitors at Google's expense, China's other leading US-listed portals such as Sohu and Sina have been left in Baidu's dust.
这两件事都不能提供完全让人信服的解释。另外两只吸引指数基金新需求的股票??巴西的OGX和印度的金达莱钢和能源(Jindal Steel & Power)??在9月4日的升幅没有那么大，而且自那以来的累计升幅只有百度的一半。另一方面，尽管投资者也许认为谷歌的损失就是竞争对手的收获，但中国在美国上市的其它领先门户网站，如搜狐(Sohu)和新浪(Sina)，股价表现远远不及百度。

Stock price moves, alone, are inconclusive. More decisively, Goldman says it had no “huddle” on September 4, when Baidu first began to move. Still, as the most unblemished institution throughout the crisis, it remains an obvious target for grievances over some of the shady practices that fomented it. The vampire squid will be harpooned for a good while yet.
股价走势本身是不能得出结论的。更具决定性的是，高盛表示，9月4日，即百度股价开始上涨当天，它并没有召开“秘密交易会议”。不过，作为最安然度过本次金融危机的机构，高盛仍是人们就某些促成了危机的不当操作发泄不满的对象。看来，这个“吸血鬼乌贼”恐怕在短期内摆脱不了鱼叉。